The D3 Solution for Mayville & Valley City
To the West lies the NAIA, to the East, the NCAA. Two schools truly at a crossroads.
Although I recently wrote of my interest in seeing both Mayville State and Valley City State move to the Frontier Conference, their public statements on their considered possibilities for Fall 2025 and beyond mentioned a potential move to Division 3 of the NCAA. It appears likely that the two schools will move to their future home together, though that isn't a guarantee, but for the sake of argument I am taking that approach.
So who might want them?
There is only one conference which makes sense: the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference, or UMAC.
Currently, the UMAC consists of 8 full members (2021/22 enrollment in parentheses):
Bethany Lutheran College (646) - Mankato, MN
Crown College (550) - St. Bonifacius, MN
Martin Luther College (652) - New Ulm, MN
University of Minnesota-Morris (1,114) - Morris, MN
North Central College (779) - Minneapolis, MN
Northland College (515) - Ashland, WI
University of Northwestern-St. Paul (1,442) - Roseville, MN
University of Wisconsin-Superior (1,626) - Superior, WI
In addition to these 8 schools, the UMAC also has 2 associate members for football:
Greenville University (777) - Greenville, Illinois
Westminster College (639) - Fulton, MO
These two associate members only sit around 150 miles apart, but are quite far from the rest of the conference, facilitating a need for at least one flight for the football-playing members. At this time only 4/8 full members sponsor football.
For comparison, Mayville State and Valley City State reported an undergraduate enrollment of 619 and 721, respectively, in the same timeframe.
Of the full members, Ashland, WI is the furthest east with Mankato, MN the furthest south, and Morris the furthest west and closest school to Mayville and Valley City.
That being said, Mayville, ND to Ashland, WI is only about 350 miles, and Mayville to Mankato is about 330 miles, making travel among the full members extremely doable as a bus league.
The conference is also home to some of the smaller schools in Division 3, with 5/8 full members under 1000 undergraduates, making the 2 North Star members not appear out of place.
As for sponsored sports, the UMAC offers:
M/W Cross Country
M/W Track & Field
M/W Golf
M/W Basketball
M/W Soccer
M/W Tennis
Football
Baseball
Softball
Women's Volleyball
This is 100% coverage of all sports played by Mayville State and Valley City State, simplifying a potential transition. The only potential snag is that at this time, Mayville State only plays 4 sports per gender while Division 3 membership standards that I found state that D3 schools under 1000 undergraduates need to sponsor 5 sports. The simplest solution in the short term would be to add Men's and Women's Cross Country, but I may be mistaken on this requirement.
That being said, the two schools would be a great fit for the UMAC, both in size and geography. The conference would increase to 10 full members and 8 football members while increasing its footprint into eastern North Dakota.
Expected cost reductions won't come without some risk, however. Small schools are quite sensitive to changes in enrollment, and the loss of access to athletic scholarships along with differences in the regulatory environment could create some year over year instability as players transfer out for financial reasons. For 2021/22, Valley City State had approximately 1/3rd of their undergrads involved in the athletic program while Mayville State was closer to 39%.
I do want to see the two schools follow Dickinson State to the Frontier Conference, but should an invite to the UMAC exist for both, I will not be surprised if they take that route.
My belief is that Frontier Conference membership gives the schools greater long-term prospects for growth, but with greater short term cost increases. A move to the UMAC may be difficult in the short term with no guaranteed recovery of any lost enrollment due to the change, though nominal operating expenses should be quite manageable for the schools while future growth of the athletic program should be operationally affordable.
My impression of Division 3 is that it is quite stable in terms of school movement, but small schools have begun to face insolvency at an increasing rate and risking enrollment is a dangerous game. This is not an easy decision and I will be glad to see the situation resolved, hopefully by the end of this school year.